E-edition PLUS unlimited articles & videos

Personalized news alerts with our mobile app

*FREE access to newspapers.com archives

Hundreds of games, puzzles & comics online

Please subscribe to continue reading…

NFL update: Mike McCarthy leaves Dallas Cowboys; team now searching for a new head coach. NFL Divisional Round Preview of the remaining eight teams. Tune in!

A fundamental rule of gambling is that the house very often wins; the entire industry is set up that way.

But every once in a while, it doesn’t go that way.

That is what has happened recently in the NFL, where teams favored by oddsmakers to win have done so at a rate unmatched in recent history.

It has put money into the pockets of many bettors — and taken it away from sportsbooks.

Recently, Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, blamed the success of NFL favorites as a factor in its revenue coming in below what it expected in November and December.

“The 2024/2025 NFL season to date has been the most customer-friendly since the launch of online sports betting, with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years,” the company said in a statement last week.

The big wins for favorites cost the book about $390 million in revenue from mid-November through Dec. 31.

DraftKings has been experiencing the same thing. All it can do is tip its hat to the winners, a top executive said.

“Favorites have performed well in the NFL this season, leading to player-friendly outcomes and generally a favorable season for our customers,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of sports operations. “We congratulate the customers on their success, and remain committed to providing the best lines and a best-in-class experience for each game.”

According to the betting news site Covers.com, NFL favorites have gone 198-80 straight up so far this season, a win rate of 71.2%. They were 147-124 with seven ties against the spread.

BetMGM said a Nov. 17 game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Detroit Lions topped its list of customer-friendly outcomes this season, with the Lions rolling to a 52-6 win.

Other big wins for customers included the Buffalo Bills’ 23-20 win over the New York Jets on Oct. 14; Detroit’s 47-9 spanking of the Dallas Cowboys on Oct. 13; the Denver Broncos’ 41-32 win over the Cleveland Browns on Dec. 2; and the Atlanta Falcons’ 38-20 win over the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 13.

Sports betting is designed to set the odds so that, as closely as possible, the same number of people bet on each side of a game. The sports book makes its money in that situation through a cut of the money that it keeps for itself, known as the price, or the “vig.”

But things happen.

Sometimes a wave of money comes in on one side or the other, forcing the sports books to adjust the odds to try to bring the total number of bets back into balance.

The rate of favorites winning has left sports books vulnerable. And people like Muhammad Abdur-Rahim, a New York school teacher, have benefited.

Just before Thanksgiving, Abdur-Rahim said he had a memorable day, winning a seven-team NFL parlay. That meant he correctly picked the winners of seven games and bundled them all into a single bet; if any of the seven teams he bet on had lost, the entire bet would have been a loser.

But they all won. Abdur-Rahim was at the grocery store that evening when the final team won its game, and he said he initially did not even know he had won the longshot bet.

The $20 he wagered brought back over $1,800. But he wasn’t through yet.

He said he put $3 on what can only be described as a moonshot of a bet: a 14-leg parlay of player props, which are bets on the statistical performance of players in their games.

Against all likelihood, he said, that bet won, too, bringing him another $1,900.

“It was a great feeling,” said Abdur-Rahim, who said he visits Atlantic City every two months or so. “And I took it right out, too. I transferred it into my bank account and spent it on things I really needed.”

In this weekend’s playoff games, the Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 8.5 points over the Houston Texans; the Detroit Lions are favored by 9.5 over the Washington Commanders; the Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 6.5 over the Los Angeles Rams, and the Baltimore Ravens are favored by 1.5 over the Buffalo Bills, according to FanDuel.

Contact Wayne Parry:

609-272-7000

[email protected]

X @WayneParryAC

Email notifications are only sent once a day, and only if there are new matching items.

Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device.